Projected 2026 Order of Merit Finish: 10th–14th range

Prologue — The Paradox of Duncan

Alan Duncan arrived on the EuroDov Tour with the bearing of an elder statesman: thoughtful, affable, steady — the kind of golfer you expect to shake your hand firmly on the first tee and serenely on the last. But beneath that calm exterior lies something volatile: a streak of competitive fire that can either propel him to victory or burn holes through his scorecard.

He is, perhaps, the most enigmatic golfer on Tour.

Some players are defined by the purity of their swing.
Some by their short-game magic.
Some by mental resilience.

Duncan is defined by duality. He is capable of winning titles — we know this — yet often ends up wrestling himself more than the golf course.

The Record — Searching for Pattern

Let’s chart his Order of Merit finishes and course-by-course scoring across the last three competitive seasons:

2023

St Andrews — 1 (Win)
Kinghorn — 8
MCM — 13
Dodhead — 3
King’s — 5
Lochgelly — 14
Average finishing position: 7 | OoM Finish: 11

2024

St Andrews — 3
Kinghorn — 14
MCM — 10
Dodhead — 12
King’s — 5
Lochgelly — 5
Average finishing position: 8 | OoM Finish: 6

2025

St Andrews — 12
Kinghorn — 12
MCM — 11
Dodhead — 10
King’s — 1 (Win)
Lochgelly — 10
Tour Champs — 9
Average finishing position: 9 | OoM Finish: 12

His historical performance is a study in contrast:

He is either winning — or merely present. The wins in 2023 and 2025 prove his ceiling. The averages prove his floor.

His scoring profile is one of the widest variance distributions on Tour — he can shoot the lights out one week and fight his swing the next.

The High Point — 2025 King’s Cup at Canmore

When historians look back at Duncan’s career, they will bookmark the 2025 King’s Cup victory.

That week, he played golf with majesty: measured tempo, assertive approach shots, ice-calm putting,
a composed and almost meditative demeanour. He owned the course.

And yet… it seemed almost shocking because it didn’t come on the back of a streak of form. It was an eruption inside an otherwise average season. Duncan went into the event not as a favourite, but as a factor.

He left it as a champion.

That tournament reaffirmed the two core truths with Alan: He absolutely has the game to win. He does not always access it.

The Question — What Holds Him Back?

To understand Duncan, we have to look inward. He is not a technical struggler — his swing is fundamentally sound. He is not a short-game liability — his hands are soft and educated.

He is not a strategic novice — he reads courses well.

No — the demon, if there is one, is emotional.

Those who’ve walked with him have seen flashes: a muttered self-rebuke, a simmering frustration, the tightened jaw, the aggressive walk up the fairway.

Alan isn’t volatile to others — he’s volatile to himself. The temper is rarely outward — but it might be cannibalising strokes.

Golf pundits often say: “You can’t beat the field if you’re busy beating yourself.”

For Duncan, controlling the flame — not extinguishing it — is the key.

The Strengths — Where He Wins

1. Big-Game Capability - he has won twice on the OoM — at St Andrews and Canmore. That matters. These aren’t soft fields or trivial venues.

2. Clutch Upside - Duncan is one of the few players who can go low when the stars align. He can shoot the kind of round that scrambles prediction models.

3. Quiet Respect - his presence commands seriousness. Other players know that when Duncan is on, he is absolutely one of the best.

4. Experience - where younger players may be rattled by a bad start, Duncan has seen enough golf to recover and stabilize.

The Weaknesses — Where He Falters

1. Emotional Self-Damage - a rash decision after a bad hole, an aggressive recovery attempt, a silently simmering frustration.

These moments cost shots — every season.

2. Kinghorn & MCM Discomfort

Those venues consistently produce mid-to-low finishes for him. Is it wind management? The shaping demands? Or simply psychological baggage?

3. Form Inconsistency

He doesn’t string 4 strong events together. His graph isn’t a trend line. It’s a seismograph.

2026 — The Best Chance To Win

If there is a venue in the 2026 rotation where Alan Duncan can realistically take a trophy, it is:

St Andrews — The Eden Course

Why? He has won there before, and he responds to big-stage golf. The course rewards control over aggression and it allows smart players to beat long players

If he shows up on the Eden with a clean head and a quiet tempo, do not be surprised to see his name near the top after 18 holes.

What To Watch For — The Tells

Every golfer has behavioural cues.

For Duncan:

If he walks slowly — he’s in control
If he smiles and chats — he’s relaxed & dangerous
If he goes silent — the storm is inside

And on the green?

If Duncan’s putter begins to roll…
if 8-foot par-saves start dropping…
watch out.

Because Duncan is a confidence golfer.
If he starts playing free, he can win.
If he starts playing tight, he sinks.

Final Verdict — The Season Outlook

Alan Duncan is one of the most compelling golfers to write about because his journey is so distinctly human. He is: talented, flawed, emotional, capable, yet unpredictable

We don’t know which Duncan we’ll get in 2026.

We might see:

the Zen competitor who glided to victory at St Andrews
or
the self-scolding battler who grinds to midfield finishes

But that uncertainty is what makes him unavoidably watchable.

When he steps onto the first tee at St Andrews in spring of 2026, the question will not be:
“How will the course treat him?”

It will be:
“How will he treat himself?”

Because if Alan Duncan finds peace with his own game, the field should be nervous.

The fire inside him can burn courses down.

If only he chooses the right direction to aim the flame.