The James Braid Quaich has always been more than just a trophy. It is the Tour’s ultimate marker of consistency, resilience, and brilliance across a season, the silver bowl every EuroDov golfer imagines lifting on a late-summer afternoon when the winds whip off the Firth of Forth. And in 2025, the race for the Quaich has been nothing short of epic.

From April’s cautious first swings on the Eden Course at St Andrews, through Kinghorn’s chaos, Pitfirrane’s precision, Burntisland’s tempest, Canmore’s crucible, and the tight corridors of Lochgelly, the regular season has delivered a feast of drama. It has crowned six different winners in six events, produced multiple count-backs, and thrown the Quaich race into a state of constant suspense.

And now, it all comes down to Craigielaw. Two rounds, each worth 2,400 points, meaning 4,800 on the line across the weekend. Enough, in theory, for anyone in the 12-man field to snatch the Quaich with a miracle run. Enough, in practice, for a handful of genuine contenders to rewrite the season in one blistering burst.

The standings tell the story of a campaign that has been both dominated and yet constantly unsettled:

David McColgan – 6,050
Paul Gowens – 4,150
Stuart Allan – 4,000
Daniel Peck – 3,800
Richard Mair – 3,450
Stephen Orr - 3,300
Kevin Brannan – 2,950
Callum McNeill – 2,500
Denis Duncan – 2,300
Stuart Sutherland – 2,025
Alan Duncan – 1,725
Ally Greenshields – 1,550
Scott Gowens – 1,100
Jim Robertson – 1,006
Greig Baxter - 800
Joel Morrison - 0

Three men (Stevie Orr, Greig Baxter, Joel Morrison) will not tee it up at Craigielaw due to a mix of commitments. For the rest, the script is clear: McColgan leads, but four others still dream of overtaking him.

The Regular Season in Review: A Campaign of Margins

The context of this championship can only be understood by looking back at the road here.

McColgan set the tone at St Andrews, his metronomic style proving perfectly suited to the Eden’s subtle challenges. He was the bookies’ 7/4 pre-season favourite, and he lived up to the billing, starting the season with a victory that announced — once again — that he would be the man to beat.

Two weeks later at Kinghorn, he doubled down. While the field scrambled against fiery greens and a treacherous par-three stretch, McColgan kept his card clean, sealed another win, and made it two-from-two. The message was unmistakable: consistency wins Quaich's.

But this was no one-man procession. Paul Gowens struck at Pitfirrane, claiming a home-course victory with a blend of calculation and courage. Kevin Brannan, returning from injury, stunned the field at Burntisland, birdieing the last to edge McColgan in a duel reminiscent of their 2022 EuroDov Cup clash. At Canmore, the Duncan brothers staged a thriller for the ages, Alan edging Denis on count-back with a 31 back nine. And then, at Lochgelly, McColgan once again proved his steel, outlasting Gowens in yet another count-back.

Six events, four winners. Two decided by count-back. Four where three or more players had a chance walking up the last. It was, in short, the most competitive regular season in Tour history.

Now all eyes look across the river, towards Scotland's Golf Coast and the Tour Champs at Craigielaw, come the end of play there will be only one winner.

The Favourite: David McColgan (6,050 pts – 58% chance)

For all the turbulence, the standings don’t lie: McColgan enters Craigielaw with a commanding lead. His three victories — St Andrews, Kinghorn, Lochgelly — were not just wins, but statements of control. At every stop, he has played with the aura of inevitability, even when out of position.

What makes him so difficult to beat is not just his scoring ability, but his temperament. At Canmore, he turned potential disaster into a respectable top-five. At Burntisland, he conjured birdies from nowhere in gale-force winds. At Lochgelly, he withstood Gowens’ charge and edged him on the inward nine.

The maths are simple: one top-three finish at Craigielaw and the Quaich is his. Even without that, two steady top-fives would almost certainly be enough. He only loses if he falters badly in both rounds and one of the chasing pack catches fire.

The pressure is real, of course. Leading into the Tour Champs is not the same as closing it out. But McColgan has been here before. And more often than not, he delivers.

The Main Challenger: Paul Gowens (4,150 pts – 18% chance)

If anyone can spoil McColgan’s coronation, it is Gowens. The Pitfirrane champion has shown consistency all season, finishing no worse than mid-pack, and pushing McColgan to the brink at Lochgelly.

His game suits Craigielaw: solid off the tee, strong on approach, and a putter that heats up under pressure. The challenge is simple but daunting: he must win one of the two rounds, and finish no worse than podium in the other, while hoping McColgan drifts outside the top-five twice.

That is a narrow path, but not an impossible one. And if anyone in the field has the temperament to keep applying pressure, it is Gowens.

The Dark Horse: Stuart Allan (4,000 pts – 12% chance)

Allan has been the stealth story of 2025. Consistent top-fives, flashes of brilliance, and a composure that has made him the season’s great “what if?”. He doesn’t yet have a win this year, but he has hovered close enough that it feels overdue.

Craigielaw might be the place. A round win plus a podium in the other, combined with a McColgan stumble, could see Allan leapfrog into history. His strength is tactical golf; in links winds, that could be decisive.

The danger for Allan is that he may need more than his usual consistency. He must be bold, not just steady, if he is to take the Quaich.

The Outside Shot: Daniel Peck (3,800 pts – 5% chance)

Peck’s season has been a paradox: brilliant in patches, frustrating in others. His ball-striking is among the best on Tour, his willingness to attack a course second to none. But his putter has let him down at key moments, most notably at Lochgelly, where the greens refused to yield.

His path is straightforward: a round win and another podium. Anything less will not suffice. The trouble is, Craigielaw is a course that punishes over-aggression. Peck’s gamble is that he can harness his firepower without self-destructing. If he can, he could be the wildcard of the weekend.

The Longshot: Richard Mair (3,450 pts – 2% chance)

Mair has endured the most frustrating season of all. Time and again, he has been in position — and time and again, late stumbles have cost him. At Pitfirrane, it was the 18th hole. At Canmore, it was Amen Corner.

And yet, he still sits fifth. Still close enough that a dream weekend could propel him past everyone. But for that, he must win one of the two rounds, and finish no worse than third in the other, while McColgan flounders.

It is a tall order. But if there is to be a shock champion, it could be Mair — the nearly man turned giant-killer.

The Slim Chances: Brannan, McNeill, Denis Duncan, Sutherland (<1% each)

Each of these players has shown flashes this season. Brannan’s Burntisland win was one of the stories of the year. Denis Duncan nearly toppled his brother at Canmore. McNeill and Sutherland have had moments of brilliance.

But the maths are brutal. All require a double sweep of victories, plus a McColgan collapse. That makes them spoilers, rather than true contenders. And yet, in a two-round shootout, spoilers can matter.

The Field: Alan Duncan, Ally Greenshields, Scott Gowens, Jim Robertson (~0%)

For the bottom four, the Quaich is beyond reach. But each has pride to play for, and each could play a role in deciding the title by taking points off rivals.

Craigielaw: The Final Battleground

Craigielaw is no ordinary course. Perched on the East Lothian coast, it demands discipline, nerve, and imagination. The fairways run fast and true, the greens are subtly contoured, and the wind is a constant companion.

It is, in many ways, the perfect decider. A place where leaders can be punished for caution, where chasers can seize momentum, and where no advantage is ever entirely safe.

Final Prediction

The James Braid Quaich has a habit of producing late twists. In 2023, Richard Mair fell short by a whisker. In 2024, Daniel Peck’s charge fizzled in the final round. In 2025, the stage is set for another drama.

But the weight of evidence, and the weight of probability, point one way. David McColgan has been the most consistent, the most ruthless, the most resilient. He has stared down count-backs, battled brutal winds, and still sits atop the standings.

At Craigielaw, he does not need to win — though he may well try. He needs only to be himself: steady, composed, unflappable. If he does that, the Quaich is his.

Behind him, Paul Gowens is the likeliest challenger, his form peaking at the right time. Stuart Allan lurks with menace, and Daniel Peck could yet ignite the weekend with a flurry of birdies. But unless the wind changes in ways we cannot foresee, the story of 2025 is already written.

Prediction: David McColgan wins the 2025 James Braid Quaich, with Paul Gowens runner-up and Stuart Allan third.